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Foreword By Robert D. Kaplan Geography still rules, despite the conceits of the jet age and the information age. Geography is where any discussion of the strategic environment must begin. The key here is precisely the geography that cannot be seen from above: This geography is further complicated by pipelines, communications cables, and economic exclusion zones.
Indeed, below the surface of a boisterous ocean is a critical strategic world. The Russians, as a resurgent power, have modernized their military forces, but they still face the same geographical limitations as in the past. If American warships are sent with large numbers of troops and materiel to reinforce Europe, they must cross Atlantic waters infested with Russian submarines, surface vessels, or aircraft that transited south through the gap.
It is here that the geographies of North America and Europe meet and intermesh. Almost three decades since the Berlin Wall fell, the Gap is returning to its Cold War importance, but it is yet underappreciated by contemporary policymakers.
How can it rebuild military capabilities and skillsets for this region when resources are constrained? Should the NATO members in the region adopt a defensive posture and protect convoys, or should they adopt an offensive posture and venture out to hunt subs, or perhaps both?
Such questions, pondered by World War II naval planners, are once again relevant. The Forgotten Waters tabletop exercise concentrated on what is hidden from view, but is critical nevertheless. And something new and even larger informed this exercise: They can no longer be relegated to the outer boundaries of strategic thinking.
Newly pertinent is the celebrated essay by British geographer Sir Halford J. It declared that the Central Asian heartland of Eurasia had become the key battleground, as European power struggles had grown to encompass the entire Eastern Hemisphere. This spatial way of thinking would now, however, place increased importance on the seas.
Along that rim are the seas: In the quarter-century since the end of the Cold War, and particularly during the most recent tenure of President Vladimir Putin, Russia has changed; once a reluctant but pragmatic partner, it is an increasingly aggressive actor as in earlier strategic eras.
Its military has begun to transition, too: Russia has paired its military capabilities with an array of gray zone tactics involving proxies, subterfuge, and disinformation designed to intimidate neighbors and sow divisions among the transatlantic partners.
The current reality of Russian power and ambition necessitates a renewed examination of Russian strategy across traditional and emerging domains. The maritime domain, in particular, is once again garnering increased attention among NATO allies, especially as Russian submarines have become more capable, while Allied anti-submarine warfare ASW capabilities have atrophied over time.
This partially explains why the GIUK Gap has seen more submarine traffic and higher tensions in recent years. As a result, focus on Allied maritime capabilities that could deter these actions has heightened.
The United States is also planning to use part of the recently quadrupled U. Inthe United States also deployed F aircraft and Air Force personnel to Iceland and the Netherlands for support and training.
Forgotten Waters As Allies begin to upgrade their respective naval capabilities to counter an increasingly aggressive Russia, the importance of investigating various scenarios in which those capabilities may be employed has grown.
Policymakers and think tank analysts regularly turn to tabletop exercises for fresh insights on national security challenges; such exercises allow players to test assumptions about future actions in real time, exposing policy and capability gaps before fictitious crises erupt into real ones.
Seventy participants from Europe and the United States were divided into six teams: Over the course of two days, the six teams were given three sequential, unclassified, increasingly escalatory moves to which each team must respond. Using enhanced submarine and electronic warfare technology, Russia slipped undetected into the exercise and disrupted navigation and communications equipment of the NATO participants.
Move 1 required coordination and communication throughout the NATO alliance in order to preserve the integrity of the NATO exercise and respond to the Russian provocation. Move 2 presented the participants with two events that at first seemed unrelated. The first was a disinformation campaign that shifted the anticipated outcome of a national election in Iceland.
As a result, the new prime minister arrived in office with a pledge to end the NATO air policing campaign over her country and to end all future NATO deployments to and through Iceland. Then, as participants were grappling with this scenario, they were told that an undersea cable between Iceland and Canada had been cut, creating a significant telecommunications disruption.NHTSA Press Releases.
Press Release Location Release Date ; Consumer Advisory: Protect Children Traveling To and From School. SECTION. 1. All legislative Powers herein granted shall be vested in a Congress of the United States, which shall consist of a Senate and House of Representatives. My first reaction when French President Emmanuel Macron said this week that the European Union needed its own army to defend against potential adversaries — including the United States — was.
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